I enjoyed the essay very much. A few points:

"We all know what a woman is." I think this is a bit misleading. Regarding some people, we all know they're women; regarding others, people disagree. We all know Kris Jenner is a woman; but Caitlyn Jenner, not so much.

The real question, in a free society, is what a critical mass of society agrees is true. We can hope that that agreement correlates with objective reality, but there are no guarantees. I can't put a percentage to the term "critical mass"; it's one of those things, like obscenity, where "I know it when I see it," and it may be a different percentage for different things. It's not just a number; it's really a comfort level. If you want an example of how this works, look at the legitimization of gay marriage in the US. Being gay is still a statistical outlier, but has become socially acceptable and (to some degree) legally protected.

Whether a trans woman is really a woman is something concerning which reasonable minds may, and do, disagree. It is not objectively verifiable; so, it falls within the category of belief. That doesn't make it untrue; it simply means we can't prove it (or disprove it) -- and, as such, it is not a legitimate basis for law, public policy or civil rights. (Sidebar: trans womanhood and gender dysphoria are two completely different things; gender dysphoria is objectively verifiable.)

"Bigotry" is an impossible allegation to substantiate when it is used to describe someone who is simply not on board with trans womanhood. If you have reasonable doubts that trans women are women, how is barring them from women's safe spaces prejudiced? This is where the trans activists have done us all incalculable damage, trans and cis women alike: by sacrificing reason to political advantage, discussion has become impossible and many trans women have been savagely propagandized that they have a right to demand certain accommodations from the rest of society. After several years of this, and what is seen by many as "progress," the chickens have come home to roost and the political Right has risen up. And, as is usually the case, the resentment built up over the course of years by the prancing and preening of self-righteous activists making unreasonable demands has exploded into an anti-trans movement.

There are questions that must be addressed honestly and without bias or blinders. Social contagion is one; the suffering of gender dysphoric people is another. While I say that trans women cannot establish a right to use women's safe spaces, that doesn't mean they don't suffer when they can't. It has been a century or more since cis women suffered under the "urinary leash" that trans women are now expected to suffer. This kind of thing is real; I live it, every day. In a number of jurisdictions now, there are no safe spaces for trans women who are spousally abused or need to use a public restroom ... and in some, we are even denied medical care as adults. All these matters must be addressed.

I believe society will, one day, come to terms with us. No matter how many are deluded or confused about who they are -- and every case is a tragedy -- there are some who are not, who know exactly who they are and need to live accordingly. It is interesting to note that, when percentages are discussed by the Right, they never say that everyone who transitions regrets it; they always limit it to some portion -- which necessarily means they are willing to throw those who don't under the bus. I have yet to hear them speak on this.