I think items 2 & 5 from the list of characteristics of genocide are present.
The most fundamental distinction between trans people and their enemies is based on the idea that gender exists as something real. Trans people believe it is, their enemies believe it isn't; and the operative word here is "belief." Can it be proven that "trans women are women"? No. Can it be proven they aren't? No.
The belief that "trans women are women" is held for the same reason any belief is held: as an effort to give meaning to life, especially to suffering. The fact that it's merely a belief and not demonstrable fact doesn't mean it isn't true. It only means we can't require others to respect it. To do so would be substantively like requiring others to recognize a tenet of Islam or Roman Catholicism.
The forces arrayed against trans people are in part due to this effort by many trans activists to enshrine the meme that "trans women are women" into law or public policy, which is tantamount to demanding a religious preference. Naturally, people who do not subscribe to our belief resented that, and have finally decided to do something about it.
Unfortunately, they, too, are basing their actions on a belief: the belief that we are delusional and that the recommended protocol is facilitating that delusion, with negative consequences for both ourselves and society at large. After having our belief pushed on them, they are now pushing theirs on us.
If we are going to live in the same society with our adversaries, it will have to be on the basis of demonstrable fact, not one belief or the other. And the demonstrable facts are: (a) gender dysphoria exists; (b) it has no reliable cure; (c) it causes dramatic increases in suffering and suicidality; and (d) there is only one therapeutic approach with any consistency of positive effect: transitioning -- which can include HRT, surgery, living as women (or men), or any combination of the above.
There is no public position there on whether or not "trans women are women." All these things can be proven, and will be proven, in court, as these legislative efforts are forced to defend themselves.
At its heart, this is a war of belief systems. Until we recognize this, we will continue to attack one another by seeing who can scream the loudest that they are right.
